A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model     

lvaro Gonzlez  Miguel Vzquez-Prada  Javier B. Gmez  Amalio F. Pacheco 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):319

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.  相似文献   

Monazite behaviour and age significance in poly-metamorphic high-grade terrains: A case study from the western Musgrave Block, central Australia     

Nigel M. Kelly  Geoffrey L. Clarke  Simon L. Harley 《Lithos》2006,88(1-4):100-134

Integrated, in situ textural, chemical and electron microprobe age analysis of monazite grains in a migmatitic metapelitic gneiss from the western Musgrave Block, central Australia has identified evidence for multiple events of growth and recrystallisation during poly-metamorphism in the Mesoproterozoic. Garnet + sillimanite-bearing metapelite underwent partial melting and segregation to palaeosome and leucosome during metamorphism between 1330 and 1296 Ma, with monazite grains in leucosome recording crystallisation at 1300 Ma. Monazite breakdown during melting is inferred to have occurred in the palaeosome. During a subsequent granulite facies event at 1200 Ma, deformation and metamorphism of leucosome and palaeosome resulted in partial disturbance of ages and potential minor growth on 1300 Ma monazite in leucosome. Growth of new, high-Y (+HREE) monazite in palaeosome domains occurred during garnet breakdown in the presence of sillimanite to cordierite and spinel, as a result of post-peak isothermal decompression. Diffusive enrichment of resorbed garnet rims in Y + HREE suggests garnet breakdown occurred slower than volume diffusion of REE. Monazite in both palaeosome and leucosome were subsequently partially to penetratively recrystallised during a retrogression event that is suggested to have occurred at 1150–1130 Ma. The intensity of recrystallisation and disturbance of ages appears linked to proximity to retrogressed garnet porphyroblasts and their occurrence in the relatively reactive or ‘fertile’ local environments provided by the palaeosome/mesosome volumes, which caused localised changes in retrogressive fluids towards compositions more aggressive to monazite. Like reaction textures, it is apparent that domainal equilibrium and reaction may control or at least strongly influence monazite REE and U–Th–Pb chemistry and hence ages.  相似文献   

Deep seismic reflection study over the Vindhyans of Rajasthan: Implications for geophysical setting of the basin     

B Rajendra Prasad  V Vijaya Rao 《Journal of Earth System Science》2006,115(1):135-147

This paper presents results of high-resolution deep seismic reflection profiling of the Proterozoic Vindhyan basin of the Rajasthan area along the Chandli-Bundi-Kota-Kunjer profile. Seismic images have been used to estimate the thickness of Vindhyan strata as well as to understand the tectonic framework of the basin. The results are constrained by gravity, magnetic and magnetotelluric data. The study reveals gentle SE-dipping reflection bands representing the Vindhyan strata. The seismic sections depict gradual thickening of the Vindhyan succession towards southeast from Bundi. The velocities of the upper and lower Vindhyans are identified as 4.6-4.8 km/s and 5.1-5.3 km/s. The NW limit of the Vindhyan basin is demarcated by the Great Boundary Fault (GBF) that manifests as a 30 km wide NW dipping thrust fault extending to a depth of 30 km.  相似文献   

Strain partitioning and stress rotation at the North Anatolian fault zone from aftershock focal mechanisms of the 1999 Izmit M_w= 7.4 earthquake     

Marco Bohnhoff  Helmut Grosser  Georg Dresen 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(1):373-385

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Assembly of Proterozoic Australia: implications of a revised pole for the ∼1070 Ma Alcurra Dyke Swarm, central Australia     

Phillip W. Schmidt  George E. Williams  Alfredo Camacho  James K. W. Lee 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(2):626-634

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滑坡稳定性分析与安全系数取值研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

徐青  陈士军  陈胜宏 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2006,17(3):58-62

在地质灾害中,滑坡灾害分布最广、发生频率最高、危害最大,是我国地质灾害防治的主要对象。滑坡研究的主要任务之一是稳定性分析。论文针对三板溪水电站进水口滑坡和水布垭水电站大岩淌滑坡,分别采用刚体极限平衡法、块体单元法、有限单元法对稳定安全系数和条间推力分布曲线进行分析和比较,研究各种方法的差异和计算精度,以及各种方法稳定安全系数的取值标准,希望为水利水电工程边坡设计规范有关有限单元法、块体单元法条目的编写和相应的允许安全系数取值标准的制定提供一定的参考。研究结果表明:①块体单元法计算的安全系数与刚体极限平衡法计算的安全系数可以采用相同的取值标准,而有限单元法计算的安全系数取值标准可适当降低;②块体单元法计算的条间水平推力、条间剪切力与刚体极限平衡法(尤其是Sarma法)计算的条间水平推力、条间剪切力非常相近,有限单元法计算的条间水平推力、条间剪切力较小;③分析方法、力学模型与参数取值应与安全系数取值标准相匹配。  相似文献   

华夏地块: 一个由古老物质组成的年轻陆块   总被引：26，自引：3，他引：26  

于津海  魏震洋  王丽娟  舒良树  孙涛 《高校地质学报》2006,12(4):440-447

对华夏地块三个主要前寒武纪地质体出露区变质岩的详细锆石年代学的综合分析显示，华夏地块大致可以被分成武夷山区和南岭-云开区。武夷山区由古元古代核和新元古代（形成于730-820 Ma）的盖层组成，构成华夏地块最老的古陆，在其深部很可能还存在一个新太古代基底。新元古代的沉积物主要来自武夷微古陆本身。南岭与云开具有相似的前寒武纪地壳组成，它们主要是由新元古代形成的沉积物夹少量火山岩组成。这些沉积物质中包含了非常古老的中太古代和新太古代组分，甚至古太古代组成。Grenville期和中元古代组分是其中最丰富的。这些组分在华夏没有对应出露的岩石，说明它们主要来自另外一个曾经与华夏相邻的陆块。该陆块很可能是东印度－东南极大陆。南岭－云开区最初可能是Rodinia超大陆裂解时形成的一个裂谷盆地，加里东的造山运动使盆地中的沉积物挤压、褶皱和隆起，与武夷陆块共同构成了一个新的年轻的大陆  相似文献   

Effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship     

S-S. Xu  A. F. Nieto-Samaniego  S. A. Alaniz-Álvarez  L. G. Velasquillo-Martínez 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2006,95(5):841-853

The power-law exponent (n) in the equation: D=cL ⁿ , with D = maximum displacement and L = fault length, would be affected by deviations of fault trace length. (1) Assuming n=1, numerical simulations on the effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship are done in this paper. The results show that: (a) uniform relative deviations, which means all faults within a dataset have the same relative deviation, do not affect the value of n; (b) deviations of the fault length due to unresolved fault tip decrease the values of n and the deviations of n increase with the increasing length deviations; (c) fault linkage and observed dimensions either increase or decrease the value of n depending on the distribution of deviations within a dataset; (d) mixed deviations of the fault lengths are either negative or positive and cause the values of n to either decrease or increase; (e) a dataset combined from two or more datasets with different values of c and orders of magnitude also cause the values of n to deviate. (2) Data including 19 datasets and spanning more than eight orders of fault length magnitudes (10⁻²–10⁵ m) collected from the published literature indicate that the values of n range from 0.55 to 1.5, the average value being 1.0813, and the peak value of n _d (double regression) is 1.0–1.1. Based on above results from the simulations and published data, we propose that the relationship between the maximum displacement and fault length in a single tectonic environment with uniform mechanical properties is linear, and the value of n deviated from 1 is mainly caused by the sampling and linkage effects.  相似文献   

西藏俄卡地银多金属异常区地球化学     

王铨宇  杨树元 《云南地质》2005,24(3):298-302

异常形态、分布严格受推覆断裂控制,范围大、浓集中心明显,浓度变化及因子载荷表明。区内找Ag、Pb有利,而Sb又为其最佳指示元素。  相似文献   

苏皖地块－－特提斯演化阶段独立的构造单元   总被引：31，自引：1，他引：31       下载免费PDF全文

吴根耀  陈焕疆  马力  徐克定 《古地理学报》2002,4(2):77-87

基于苏皖地区的基底性质、晚元古代-中生代特征的沉积-火成建造、区域成矿和构造专属性，结合古地磁资料，提出了苏皖地块是特提斯演化阶段独立的构造单元的观点。它以苏鲁洋与华北克拉通间隔。震旦纪-早古生代的建造及变形特征与扬子克拉通有差异。石炭纪末和早二叠世的沉积和生物群表明它当时是古特提斯洋域里的一个中间地块，此时它已独立于扬子克拉通之外。三叠纪时苏鲁洋发生过大规模的消减但未闭合，因而苏皖地块的晚三叠世植物群与扬子克拉通有较明显区别。苏皖地块与华北克拉通（指胶辽地块）碰撞可能发生在早白垩世，该地区超高压变质岩的折返与之有关。之后，苏皖地块成为亚洲大陆雏形的一部分。  相似文献